Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
